New development of wind power after the "Great Leap Forward"

Reading: This year's "two sessions," Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out that "to prevent the blind expansion of solar, wind power equipment manufacturing capabilities." Although several words are spoken, the problems behind the development of the wind power industry have opened up a bit.

From the development of the “Great Leap Forward” to the overexposure of a series of issues such as overcapacity. After several years of "dislocation" development, the wind power industry can no longer simply win with the "wind" potential. In 2012, wind power went into a “lock-in” and continued to move forward. What was needed was more reasonable planning and more complete specifications. When it was backwards, it was faced with a lot of wasted resources and difficult to handle assets.

“By 2015, wind power will reach 100 million kilowatts, and the annual power generation will be 190 billion kwh, including 5 million kilowatts of offshore wind power.” The National Energy Administration has drawn a beautiful blueprint for the wind power industry in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”.

However, different from the past, the wind power industry was experiencing pain after the bustling.

In the "two sessions" this year, Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out that "to prevent the blind expansion of solar and wind power equipment manufacturing capabilities." Although several words are spoken, the problems behind the development of the wind power industry have opened up a bit.

According to our understanding, while the rapid development of the wind power industry, the amount of power generation is also rapidly rising. However, accompanied by the project "together, easy to grid, difficult", equipment manufacturing overcapacity and lack of industry norms and other issues.

"With the encouragement of the policy, China's wind power industry has developed too quickly. It is time to reflect on and summarize the problems in development." An insider sighed at us.

The fan is idle and "sun"

In 2005, it can be said that it is the first year for the large-scale development of China's wind power industry. This year, in the "Eleventh Five-Year" plan for wind energy indicators, the country plans to launch an installed capacity of 10 million kilowatts.

In February of that year, China's Renewable Energy Law was formally promulgated. Many favorable policies were subsequently introduced intensively. Local governments launched the wind power project, and the passion that led to the development of the local economy was ignited. The five major power groups successively expanded. For a time, wind farms sprang up like mushrooms.

The installed capacity of wind power in China has grown explosively. In 2005, the installed capacity of wind power in the country was only 1.26 million kilowatts. In 2010, it has reached 31.13 million kilowatts.

In 2008, the construction of Gansu Jiuquan Wind Power Base, the first 10,000-kilowatt wind power base in China, began with a total investment of 100 billion yuan. A total of 32 large-scale wind farms were instantaneously launched on the 1,100-square-kilometer Gobi beach in Jiuquan, and by the end of 2010, the installed capacity was 5.6 million kilowatts. This is equivalent to an average of 100,000 kilowatts of wind farms per 20 square kilometers.

In addition to Jiuquan Wind Power Base in Gansu Province, China also has seven million-kilowatt wind power bases in Mengdong, Mengxi, Northeast, Hebei, Xinjiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong, which are also under planning and construction. The 10 million kilowatt-class wind power bases in Shanxi and Heilongjiang provinces have also been included in the planning of the relevant national departments.

On the one hand, the tens of thousands of kilowatts of wind power base projects are being launched; on the other hand, it is to grab the initiative of the wind power market and accelerate the progress of the approval process, resulting in the phenomenon of “49,500 kilowatts.” Because according to the previous Chinese wind power project approval system, the scale of wind power projects with 50 MW or more needs the approval of the National Development and Reform Commission, and the projects below 50,000 kW are subject to local government approval.

“In order to circumvent this requirement, some wind farm investors have split the project into a number of projects below 50,000 kilowatts, resulting in a “49,500 kWh phenomenon.” Guo Shaojun, deputy director of Wulanchabu City, Inner Mongolia, accepts In our interview, we stated that there are a number of projects with an installed capacity of 49,500 kilowatts in the city of Ulanqab.

Not only in Wulanchabu, “49,500 kilowatts” is very common in Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, and even the entire country. According to a data report, in 2009, when wind power projects were launched quickly, a total of 187 wind farm projects were approved nationwide, of which 49.95 million kilowatts were 111, accounting for 59% of the total authorized volume of the year.

The common impulse of local governments and power generation companies led to a series of overall planning by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) being overhead. The most important thing is that the construction of power grids and the construction of wind farms are seriously out of line. Due to the “flooding” of wind farms, many wind turbines that cannot be connected to the grid can only be idled to “sweet the sun”.

In order to change this situation, the National Energy Administration issued the “Interim Measures for the Administration of Wind Power Development and Construction” in August 2011, and wind power approval was officially incorporated into the national unified plan. The "Measures" clearly states that projects that are not included in the National Energy Administration's plan may not be approved by the local government, they may not be connected to the grid, and they may not enjoy additional subsidies for renewable energy prices. The readjustment of the approval system will mean that the "49,500 kilowatts" phenomenon will be improved.

Oversaturated market countries have tilted preferential industrial policies and tax policies, which have caused many equipment manufacturers to flock.

At first, China's wind power equipment market is almost the world of foreign-funded enterprises. In 2005, China began to launch large-scale wind power project construction. The huge market cakes actually attracted a group of manufacturing companies to get involved in the development of wind turbines. The number of wind power equipment manufacturers in China has risen rapidly. According to statistics, before 2004, there were only 6 wind power machine manufacturing enterprises in China. By the end of 2009, the number was 86.

In the face of domestic enterprises’ price advantages, the market share of foreign wind turbine manufacturers has gradually declined. According to the statistics of the China Wind Energy Association, the market share of foreign wind power manufacturers in 2004 was as high as 75%. However, by 2009, this figure had dropped to 11.3%.

Zhang Difei (a pseudonym) entered the wind power industry in 2007. He successively engaged in sales of wind power equipment in Gemeixi and Suzlan. He said to us: "As the rise of domestic wind turbine manufacturing companies, the foreign sales of wind power equipment is getting smaller and smaller. Many foreign companies are Most of the production lines established in China are still in production or semi-discontinued."

Despite winning the market from foreign-invested wind power manufacturers, it does not mean that Chinese-funded enterprises can enjoy a feast, and the mutual slaughter of Chinese-funded enterprises immediately opens.

According to our understanding, the domestic production of wind turbines in China has increased from 10% in 2004 to more than 90% in 2009. In the current wind power industry, localization rates for wind turbine blades, gearboxes, and generators are relatively high. However, due to the relatively low technical barriers, it is hoped that new companies with a slice of energy will continue to flow into the industry.

As a result, the price war of killing one enemy and losing 800 yuan has come in handy, which has hit the bottom line of manufacturers' costs again and again. Overcapacity sounded from time to time.

In fact, as early as 2009, 10 ministries and commissions such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the document “Suppression of overcapacity and redundant construction in some industries and guide the healthy development of industries”, among which wind power equipment was impressively listed. In the subsequent documents issued, the repeated construction of the wind power industry and the issue of disorderly deployment were mentioned several times.

According to 2010 statistics, after the Chinese wind power equipment manufacturing enterprises were put into operation according to the planned scale, the annual production capacity of wind power equipment has reached 35 million kilowatts, and the average installed capacity of new wind power in the Chinese market for the next five years is around 15 million kilowatts. The overcapacity in the wind power equipment manufacturing industry is already evident.

In the "two sessions" this year, Premier Wen Jiabao raised the issue of overcapacity in the wind power industry. Shen Hongwen, a researcher of China Investment Advisor New Energy Industry, explained to us that the status quo of China's wind power equipment manufacturing industry is big but not strong, with low levels of repeated competition and frequent price wars. Most small and medium-sized wind power companies do not have the core technology of overall wind turbine design.

In order to “fight fever” for the wind power equipment manufacturing industry, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also issued the “Entry Standard for Wind Power Equipment Manufacturing Industry” in 2010 to improve industry entry barriers. Some newly-entry companies with weak strength were kept out of the door, and companies such as Harbin Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. and Wuxi Baonan Machinery Manufacturing Co., Ltd. had also withdrew from this market.

The dire straits of the power grid, the abrogation of wind, the existence of a large number of power cuts, and the overcapacity of wind turbines made it difficult for the state grid to assume the obligation of “full-scale guaranteed acquisition”. However, the national grid seems to have its own hardships.

Since 2006, the installed capacity of wind power in China has doubled for five years in a row, and the installed capacity ranks first in the world. This explosive growth has made grid planning unprepared.

Bai Jianhua, deputy chief economist of the State Grid Energy Research Institute and director of the Institute for Energy Strategy and Planning, told us that in general wind power plant projects approved by the National Development and Reform Commission have considered the coordination plan with the power grid in advance. Generally, these large-scale wind power grids have access to the grid. Relatively good.

"As of the end of 2010, the State Grid has invested a total of 41.8 billion yuan, and built 23,200 kilometers of wind power interconnection lines." Bai Jianhua told us that the State Grid has organized transmission plans for eight million-kilowatt wind power bases.

Bai Jianhua pointed out that there are now 49,500 kilowatts of projects that have been approved by local governments.

Through the approval of the local government for the construction of wind power projects, the speed of construction was very fast. “As long as the wind farm is approved by the local government, the construction is very fast. Now that the manufacturing capacity of the wind turbine equipment is relatively surplus, as long as the wind turbine is transported to the wind farm for lifting, the wind farm construction is basically completed.” A wind power operator staff We describe the construction of wind farms.

Compared with the speed of wind farm construction, the construction period of inter-provincial grids is obviously much slower.

“The approval process for power grid construction is very complicated. First, a feasibility study report needs to be prepared, and a series of supporting documents must be submitted to the relevant environmental protection, land and other related management departments before they can be approved by the NDRC. Moreover, the project investment budget and financing should be done before construction. Arrangements can only be made in real construction. This requires a long period of time,” Bai Jianhua told us.

However, the wind farms are everywhere, and the rapid deployment of the wind farms obviously made the grid unnecessarily. The poor communication in advance made the grid very passive. Bai Jianhua said: "A lot of wind farms did not pass through the grid before they were built, and even half of them were built to meet the grid requirements."

Recently, a research report released by Deutsche Bank predicts that “If China continues to build new wind turbines and wind farms at speeds beyond grid expansion and grid-connected wind power, it is expected that the installed capacity of idle wind turbines may increase to 29 GW by 2020.” According to current developments in China, this seems to be no joke.

"If we cannot properly coordinate the planning of wind power and power grids, the "Three Gorges Wind Power Project" will be a "collapse project." He Dexin, chairman of the China Wind Energy Association, also warned.

Bai Jianhua told us that wind power grid connection is a systematic project. It needs coordination of wind farm construction and grid construction. In addition, wind power in the “Three North” region has been sent out on a large scale. Given the random and intermittent nature of wind power, the receiving power grid should also accelerate the construction of peaking power sources such as gas and pumped storage.

Late "standard"

Since 2005, China's wind power industry has been like a high-speed train, and it has been galloping all the way. However, its hidden safety hazards are constantly accumulating. Suddenly, many years of indulging in a sudden burst in 2011.

On February 24, 2011, the first wind farm at Jiuxi Jiuquan Wind Power Co., Ltd. suffered a cable head failure, which resulted in 598 wind turbines of 16 wind farms being disconnected from the grid and power loss of 840,000 kilowatts. The net-off accident caused the voltage to fluctuate greatly, which also affected the Gansu power grid and even threatened the entire northwest power grid. The accident was also considered by the State Electricity Regulatory Commission as the “best accident on the grid” in China’s wind power in recent years.

Jiuquan Wind Power Base is the first demonstration base for 10 million kilowatts of wind power in China, and it is also a model project of the government. Such accidents also hurt the nerves of regulators. The National Energy Administration has issued severe notice of criticism on two occasions.

However, the wind power off-grid accident did not stop there, this is just the prelude to 2011.

On April 17, 2011, hundreds of blow-offs occurred in Zhangjiakou, Gansu and Hebei. On April 25, the Jiuquan wind power base again suffered an accident. The off-grid wind turbines reached more than 1,000 units.

The series of off-grid incidents of wind turbines was referred to by the industry as "dropping the chain." The concentration of "dropping chains" has exposed the disadvantages of the wind power industry over the years. According to statistics from the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, as of January-August 2011, a total of 193 wind power off-grid accidents occurred nationwide.

After investigating several accidents involving wind turbine disconnection, the SERC concluded that most wind turbines currently in operation do not have low-voltage ride-through capability, and are easily removed from the grid if a fault occurs in the grid and the system voltage drops. Behind this is the lack of grid-connected standards for domestic wind farms and the lag in technology.

The low-voltage ride-through capability of wind turbines refers to that when the grid fails or the disturbance causes the grid-connected voltage of the wind farm to fall, the wind turbines can continue to operate within a certain voltage drop range, thus ensuring the safe and stable operation of the grid.

We learned from the interview that, in fact, low-voltage ride-through technology is a mature technology in Europe and the United States where wind power is relatively fast. However, at the beginning of wind power development in China, the technical requirements for low voltage ride through have not been clearly defined.

In 2010, when the State Grid established the wind power network access standard, it added the “Low Voltage Ride Through” clause. However, because it is only a corporate standard, not a rigid indicator, it is not binding on the then wind turbine manufacturers. Most of the wind turbines are not manufactured after shipment. This feature.

Some industry insiders disclosed to us that in fact, since the acceptance of the Jiuquan base in October 2010, there have been many accidents caused by the low-voltage ride-through caused by wind turbines, but it was not serious in the beginning of 2011, so it did not cause Regulatory level enough attention.

The concentrated outbreak of the fan off-grid accident has finally driven the development of wind power to rationality and prudence, and related technical specifications and standards have been gradually introduced.

In August 2011, the "Technical Code for Design of Large Wind Farm Grid-connected Designs" was introduced. Among the most interesting ones was the new standard's explicit requirements on wind turbines and wind farms for low voltage ride through.

Shen Hongwen told us that the most important role, including the intensive issuance of the "Specific Specifications for Grid-Connected Design of Large Wind Farms", is to standardize the technical standards for the integration of wind farms into the power grid and to promote the healthy and orderly development of China's wind power industry. Develop and ensure large-scale power system security, stability and reliable power supply.

Therefore, in order to protect the safety of the power grid, the technical transformation and upgrading of wind turbines in the existing wind farms has become a more realistic choice.

Of course, the cost of renovation is also very high. Qi Laisheng, general manager of Longyuan Power Inner Mongolia Company, told us that the company currently has more than 600 wind turbine generators. In addition to the equipment purchased on the newly-started wind farm last year, this technology has been applied to more than 500 wind turbines previously installed on the wind farm. Transformation. At present, more than 100 units have been reconstructed, and the cost of retrofitting each turbine is about 300,000 to 400,000 yuan. This is undoubtedly a huge expense for the company.

In addition to the "Technical Specifications for Large-Scale Wind Farm Grid-Connected Design," it includes "Guidelines for Monitoring Vibration State of Wind Turbine Generators," "Power Quality Test Methods for Wind Farms," ​​"Technical Specifications for Doubly-Fed Wind Power Generators," and "Double-Fed Wind Power Generation." The 17 industrial standards such as the manufacturing technical specifications for machine converters were successively promulgated. On February 16, 2012, the national standard for the “Technical Regulations on the Integration of Wind Farms into Power Systems” was also officially issued. The wind power industry began to be transformed from a dismantled wild horse. He danced in a mustache.

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