Tencent Digital (Su Yang) is optimistic about the future of virtual reality and should also pay attention to the current industry.
So far, large and small manufacturers have entered the bureau. The most representative ones are Sony, HTC, and Oculus. In addition, traditional Internet technology giants such as Google, Microsoft, and Nokia have already launched related products and solutions. Although the product has not been disclosed, Cook, who is the leader, has already given a positive evaluation of virtual reality in public.
What is the scale of the virtual reality market that is generally viewed by the outside world?
Goldman Sachs wrote in the report, "Based on standard expectations, by 2025, AR/VR technology will likely generate $ 80 billion in revenue (45 billion in hardware revenue, 35 billion in software revenue)."
The large market scale indicates a bright future, but practitioners should return to the reality or give themselves a question. “Do consumers understand VR? Know what virtual reality means?†This answer does not Too optimistic.
A common phenomenon is that more consumers directly draw virtual reality and games on the equal sign.
The price is really too expensive
For consumers, the biggest threshold of virtual reality at this stage is price. Taking PC-level VR virtual reality products as an example, the use cost must include at least three parts: hardware cost, host cost, and software cost.
On the hardware side, the retail price of the Oculus Rift CV1 is $599, the HTC Vive retail price is $799, and the PS VR is $399. If only the lowest price is considered, the PS VR is the best solution, but if it is actually paired with the PS4 and peripherals The cost is also more than 800 US dollars, which means that users need to spend at least 5,300 yuan to get a chance to enter the threshold of PC-level virtual reality, but also limited to games and multimedia entertainment.
Is this cost expensive? Very expensive, and crucial, virtual reality hasn't had the necessary attributes like mobile phones.
China Joy 2016, when general manager Wang Congqing of HTC Vive China spoke about consumer-sensitive prices, “I think that people are paying too much attention to the price. It's not really how much a thing is, but how much value it is.â€
The industry needs to communicate the value of virtual reality products to consumers. This is no problem. However, analogous to the mobile phone industry, more and more domestic thousand yuan smartphones are gradually being accepted by consumers. Can we say that the value of the thousand yuan machine is not enough? Therefore, the virtual reality industry will sooner or later enter the Red Sea of ​​price competition. The difference is that the stage of industry development is different.
A relatively favorable news is that the manufacturers do realize the price issue and are trying to optimize the price in disguise. It is understood that HTC has publicly stated that it will jointly launch a custom PC with a price control under 4,000 yuan and will also be tied to the HTC Vive. Package.
Of course, what we said above is based on the user's desire to have a VR device.
Without considering this, consumers still have the opportunity to have deeper access to virtual reality products. For example, we have seen a large number of VR-based secondary development products on China Joy this year, including many large-scale game simulators. These products are expected to pass To B. Then To C's model, offline theme parks, amusement parks, and even VR cybercafes, provide services for users.
The installation and debugging of the equipment is too much trouble
PC-level VR is not like the mobile VR and mobile phone, can be used to install the app, and requires a lot of service and driver support, have already listed the Oculus Rift CV1 and HTC Vive performance are not ideal.
Taking HTC Vive as an example, we all had the same problem when we used the Acer Marauder 15 Gaming Edition with GTX980m graphics card - the identification was not visible and the application error code was 208.
First of all, it is certain that the GTX970 will be able to run up virtual reality applications. There will be no problems with the GTX980m hardware, and we have previously tried to modify the monitor settings and update drivers, and accidentally solved the problem, but such attempts are not permanent. Sexual problem solving is very embarrassing.
The official Tips can't basically solve the problem. During the process of finding a solution, we also found that many users have encountered the same problem. Some users even suggested reinstalling the system. This is too expensive for users.
A similar problem occurred during the installation of the Oculus Rift CV1. The HDMI interface was normally connected to the helmet, but the application was also not recognized. However, for Oculus, the more urgent should be to approach the localization problem.
Although the official website has been set up in the Chinese language, it does not provide Chinese services. The application needs to download files from overseas servers. It does not support breakpoints, but because of Facebook, you know. By the way, the Oculus Rift installation package is about 800MB.
For virtual reality hardware vendors, what is needed to do now is to collect the problems that arise during the early testing and installation of users, and then provide effective tools and solutions. Under conditions, even all the tools and services involved can be provided. Packaged, or later the amount of users up, the pressure on the "proverbial" will be even greater.
App purchases and pricing must be valued
If you consider the issue of cross-platform account mechanisms, it is understandable that an application needs to be purchased repeatedly.
For example, if you bought a live football game on the Xbox, and then you have to pay for the live football on the PS4, we found an incomprehensible thing when using Oculus.
Oculus Rift launched its own app store. In addition, due to OEM Samsung Gear VR, Oculus also outsourced Gear VR's mobile app store. Both are called Oculus Store and support the same account. The problem is that even the same development The same application developed by the company for these two platforms still requires a second purchase.
Obviously, this is good for developers and platforms, but it is somewhat unfair to users.
The two Oculus Stores are an application store under the system. Even if they are charged, they can try to provide some discounts to such users. After all, the early users who crossed the cost of hardware + host computers at this stage have already paid a considerable cost.
In addition to the same application of the same system under the same system, the application of high cost and inflexible pricing strategy will also become a factor limiting the use of users.
So far, the application store of Oculus and HTC Vive has been on the line, Sony is on the way, but the prices are also exposed, the official revealed that the overall price is cheaper than the PS4 platform, but if the three platforms Compared with the mobile application store, the price is still high. Most of the VR applications on Steam are more than RMB 48. The low price application in Vive Port is relatively more, but it is basically synchronized with Steam. Oculus mobile store applications are mostly Above 2.99 US dollars, and more than 9.99 US dollars, and on the desktop version, 49.99 US dollars and 59.99 US dollars more applications.
Whether it is a mobile version or a desktop version, VR vendors can refer to the App Store case when they run the application store.
Although the App Store now exceeds US$20 billion in revenue, in the early 2009 period, the percentage of paid apps that exceeded 1.5 billion downloads was only 3%, making it a cornerstone of the App Store's popularity.
In addition to free, Apple is also holding joint application developers from time to time to avoid the application, virtual reality applications developers do not have to go to limit this way, but it is essential for early users to provide preferential dividends.
In addition, the above pricing, Apple at the end of 2014 in China's App Store adopted a dollar pricing and 3 yuan pricing strategy, is now the norm, this approach has also been a positive response from users, 1 yuan application long-term occupation of China's pay list .
Don't ignore the issue of video content
In the era of video-to-video transition, a large number of content producers have been eliminated, and from the video to the panoramic video and VR video era, there will be a number of content producers eliminated.
For the first time, because of technical problems, a large number of excellent traditional content producers lacked the basic skills of video content production. However, after the introduction of ultra-low-level products such as short videos, a large number of content producers returned, but in this way, The problem is hard to reproduce in the era of panoramic and virtual reality video.
This time is not about technology but about cost.
In the current virtual reality industry, the main focus has been on game and application developers. For example, in the first 33 lists of Hive's virtual reality incubator Vive X, the proportion of content products is less than 1/10, which is used as virtual reality. The panoramic video and virtual reality video content that is part of consumer content is ignored or despised. Compared to more and more games, there are relatively few video content works.
On the one hand, the industry regards games as the focus of education users. On the other hand, the tools for production of content are too expensive, and related products and solutions are focused on the commercial market.
Such as the Nokia OZO panoramic camera, the price of more than 391,000 yuan, the general content of the consumer can not afford the content, but will be put into the Rio Olympic Games digital kingdom Zeus 8K panoramic camera should not be cheap, Gopro and Google custom The panoramic camera Odyssey program, also up to 9.6 million yuan.
In contrast, the consumer-grade VR product insta360 is much cheaper. The retail price of the Bank of China is 1,288 yuan, which is basically the price of a Gopro. However, the market is really opened, and products like the small ant camera that impacts Gopro are needed. Price impact on the market.
The production of virtual reality video content should not deserve attention. You can refer to the online video industry data.
iResearch iUserTracker and mUserTracker data show that in June 2016, the PC video and mobile video market reached a record high, with 200 million daily active users and 250 million monthly users, and monthly user coverage reached 530 million and 540 million respectively. People, the market size reached 7.07 billion hours and 8.07 billion hours each month, but the content market with more than 15 billion hours per month is temporarily related to virtual reality and panoramic video content. If the virtual reality industry wants to share the dividends of online video, both To ensure that users generate content, good content production conditions are also needed.
Finally, it also needs to focus on where this content can appear and in what form.
Wonderful video recommendations
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