According to the author, the author personally believes that China's current lithium-ion electric vehicle is a national strategy, more from the perspective of China's energy security and environmental protection, but also considers that China's lithium battery industry has a certain industrial base. As for the fuel cell, the gap with the developed countries in the West is too great. At present, there is no possibility of industrialization.
The author personally believes that the controversy over the technical route of pure electric vehicles for lithium batteries and fuel cells can be considered from another angle. The fuel used in fuel cells is hydrogen. The current source is mainly a by-product of the petrochemical industry, and the hydrogenation cost of electrolyzed water is relatively low. Photolysis water is still in the laboratory stage and is far away from industrialization, that is, fuel. The battery is actually closely related to the oil industry. FC-EV does not break the current strategic relationship between the automobile industry and the petroleum industry.
The situation of lithium-ion pure electric vehicles is quite different. The diversity of electric energy sources for electric vehicles is not limited to the power grid system. The grid system is also the dependence of the big energy industry and the petrochemical industry. At present, coal-fired power is mainly dominated by nuclear power in France, while the United States is dominated by oil and gas but diversified in energy structure. However, the dependence of the power grid on the petrochemical industry is not as close as that of the automobile industry.
In other words, the business model of lithium-ion pure electric vehicles may fundamentally change the fate of the oil industry! Considering the close relationship between the US auto industry and the oil industry, it is not difficult to understand why the three major auto companies in the United States have never been interested in pure electric vehicles.
The author personally believes that China's current lithium-ion electric vehicle is a national strategy, more from the perspective of China's energy security and environmental protection, but also considers that China's lithium battery industry has a certain industrial base.
As for the fuel cell, the gap with the developed countries in the West is too great. At present, there is no possibility of industrialization. The mainstream view in China believes that our internal combustion engine technology has lagged behind abroad, but in the case of lithium-ion pure electric vehicles, it has started almost simultaneously with western developed countries, which provides an excellent opportunity for China's automobile industry to achieve "curve overtaking".
Whether this view is scientific or not is a matter of opinion. The Toyota Mirai fuel cell electric car was put into operation at the end of 2015. After that, Abe Jinsan was invited to promote the Mirai, which aroused the general dislike of the domestic people. The domestic electric vehicle industry is full of arguments about the development of fuel cell electric vehicles in Japan, "route error theory" and "conspiracy theory." If we let go of national sentiment, when we understand the "historical problems" of these international mainstream automakers in the development of electric vehicles, they will have their own thoughts on these views of the Chinese electric vehicle industry.
At present, the development of global hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles has formed three camps with Japanese car companies as the axis. Toyota and BMW have jointly developed fuel cell vehicles, while Daimler-Benz and Ford have partnered with Nissan, and GM's partners are Honda and Hyundai. However, what I want to emphasize here is that the mass production of FC-EV may require at least decades of exploration and practice.
In the short term, the biggest obstacle to the industrialization of FC-EV is the cost and service life of PEMFC stacks, but in the long run, the combined cost of large-scale hydrogen production, transportation and use (hydrogen stations) is the most fundamental. Factors, and the construction of a large-scale hydrogen supply network must rise to the national strategy, and thus will be difficult and long.
At present, the mode of hydrogen production by the petrochemical by-product is relatively "cheap". Otherwise, it can be directly burned by the internal combustion engine. Why use a fuel cell? In my opinion, the greatest attraction of the "hydrogen economy" lies in its regenerability. Only hydrogen produced from the product (water) that releases energy is regenerative hydrogen, which means that it is of electrophysical water/photolysis. Hydrogen production from water is the most critical factor in the “hydrogen economyâ€.
Hydrogen production by photolysis of water seems to be "green", but I personally believe that the key factor in the hydrogen production from photolysis is not in the catalyst, but in the input density of light energy is very low. This basic characteristic determines that hydrogen production by photolysis is necessarily Low-capacity processes make it difficult to meet large-scale needs. If it is more feasible to produce hydrogen from electrolyzed water, the core issue of such a “hydrogen economy†lies in the supply of sustainable and clean primary energy for hydrogen production.
FC-EV is unlikely to be commercialized on a large scale in the next few decades. Even FC-EV is necessarily a hybrid mode of fuel cell (main power) + lithium battery (auxiliary power). Moreover, even in the field of HEV, PHEV and small electric vehicles, the business opportunities of lithium batteries are infinitely wide, so the Chinese lithium battery people don't have to worry about "the wolf is coming."
Perhaps the first thing we have to do is to clarify our thinking and abandon the thinking mode that “Lithium will replace other secondary batteries and dominate the rivers and lakes†or “Lithium will dominate the pure electric vehicle marketâ€. These extreme views are absurd from the perspective of dialectical materialism. Ridiculous.
What our lithium battery people need to do is to continuously improve the quality and cost performance of the products to meet the actual needs of electric vehicles. The author hopes that through the analysis of various aspects of lithium battery and fuel cell, the readers can understand the advantages and disadvantages of these two kinds of chemical power sources, and thus have a more rational understanding and judgment on the development of pure electric vehicles.
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