[Foreign media: The transformation of the electrification of the transportation system will accelerate in the latter part of 2020, and China will lead this change] According to foreign media reports, the latest report released by Bloomberg New Energy Finance stated that the transformation of the electrification of the transportation system will accelerate in the latter part of 2020, while electric The bus will lead this trend. Thanks to the reduction in Battery costs and the expansion of manufacturing scale, sales of electric vehicles will increase significantly.
The report stated that by 2025, the sales of electric vehicles will reach 11 million, and by 2030 will reach 30 million because they are lower than gasoline and diesel vehicles. In 2017, sales of electric vehicles were only 1.1 million.
By 2040, sales of electric vehicles will double again to 60 million vehicles, accounting for more than half of the car sales market (55%). By 2030, electric vehicles will account for 28% of the automotive market, and 84% of buses will use electric drives.
This change will be dominated by China, and its electric vehicle sales will account for half of global sales in 2025 and will drop back to 39% by 2030. Electric buses will occupy a dominant position in the market at an earlier time. By the end of the 20th century, China will even occupy a higher dominant position. Of the 300,000 electric buses operating today, 99% are in China.
The reason why electric buses are rapidly becoming dominant is because their business use cases are very successful. Compared with traditional buses, the total cost of electric buses will be cheaper as early as next year.
This rapid growth means that the oil demand of manned vehicles will peak at 2022 (24,200,000 barrels per day) as early as 2022, but this will only last for 4 years, then it will begin to decline, and it will decline to 2040. Less than 16 million barrels per day.
In the mid-1920s, the sales of diesel locomotives will also begin to decline because their cost advantage will disappear. In contrast, the electricity demand of electric vehicles will reach 2000TWh by 2030, which will lead to a 6% increase in global electricity demand and replace the demand for 7 million barrels of oil per day.
This will also lead to a substantial increase in the demand for rare metals such as lithium and cobalt, which are important raw materials for battery production. The limited supply of these two metals, as well as the slowdown in the launch of charging infrastructure and the increase in shared vehicles, may slow down the growth of the electric vehicle market.
SalimMorsy, a senior traffic analyst, said: “Although we are optimistic about the demand for electric vehicles in the coming years, we see two important obstacles. In the short term, we will see this The risk of cobalt shortages in the early 1920s may reduce the rapid decline in battery costs we have seen recently. Looking ahead, the construction of charging infrastructure is still a major challenge."
Colin McKerracher, chief economist at BNEF Senior Transport, commented: “The biggest feature of this forecast is electric buses. China has led this market in an astonishing manner, accounting for 99% of the global market last year. The rest of the world will follow closely. By 2040, we expect 80% of the world's buses will use electric drives."
McClacher also said: "The development of the past 12 months, such as the new car launch plan of the manufacturer and the new regulations to deal with urban pollution, has increased our optimism about the future of electric vehicles."
Ali Izadi-Najafabadi, chief analyst of BNEF’s smart mobile division, added: “We anticipate that by 2040, global shared vehicles will increase from the current 5 million to more than 20 million. By then, more than 90% of vehicles will be electrically driven due to the reduction in operating costs. Highly automated vehicles will account for 40% of shared vehicles."
The pace of electrification will be the fastest in Europe. By 2030, 44% of light vehicles will be electric vehicles, followed by China (41%) and the United States (34%), and Japan (17%). ) will be left behind. The Indian market will be hampered by the lack of charging infrastructure and cheap models, and by 2030 its share of electric vehicles will be only 7%.
Front Side (−): Silicon oxide + blue silicon nitride compound anti-reflection coating (PID Free) ; The front side is a half-cut design; The busbar head is a large double fork, and the pads of the busbar are intermittently stepped. The size of the head pad is 1.2 ± 0.15mm * 1.3± 0.15mm, and the middle pad of the busbar size is 0.8±0.15mm*1±0.15mm.
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