Information technology will play a fundamental role in the energy system of the future. It will connect predictable and controllable distributed new energy sources with instantly respondable industrial and domestic electricity and energy storage units. In fact, it is the current electricity network. Added a layer of information network. The intelligent interaction between these two networks constitutes the energy internet, which will make it possible to build a clean energy system with new energy as the main body in the future.
Today, when the concept of the Internet of Things has been hotly fired, it seems that people rarely mention a large network that has existed for hundreds of years and has been deeply embedded in every corner of cities and households. This network not only connects all the power generation and electrical equipment, but also ensures that the amount of power generated and the amount of electricity used are kept in balance. This means that a simple action such as turning on a light may also trigger a minor adjustment of the grid's power generation beyond a thousand miles.
The reason why this network makes everyone feel very distant is because in most cases, it is one-way: we are pure consumers of electricity, and the connection between the grid and people seems to have only a monthly electricity bill, and behind the grid Complex operating mechanisms are not directly linked to the average consumer. All this will soon be broken by the booming new energy industry and the ensuing changes in the energy industry.
Compared with traditional energy sources, new energy sources have two other characteristics in addition to the green pollution-free advantages that people are already familiar with: dispersibility and instability. In Germany, a pioneer in the development of new energy sources, the roof-mounted photovoltaic power generation equipment and the wind turbines scattered along the roadside of the field output power as if they were countless turbulent flows. In 2016, the proportion of new energy generation represented by wind energy and solar energy in German electricity has exceeded 30%.
Unlike traditional energy sources, which are mainly controlled by large power generation groups, most of the new energy generation equipment in Germany belongs to individuals or small owners. For the grid, the impact of this change is revolutionary. As mentioned earlier, in order to maintain the stability of the power grid, the amount of power generated and the amount of electricity used must be balanced. In the past, this balance was mainly achieved by adjusting the amount of power generated at the power generation end, and as the proportion of uncontrolled new energy power generation spread across all corners of the country became higher and higher, this regulation became more and more Unsustainable.
On May 8, 2016, a historic moment occurred in Germany. In a few hours, the total amount of new energy generated in Germany (mainly wind energy and solar energy) reached a peak close to 95% of its total electricity consumption. This means that the whole of Germany is driven almost entirely by wind and solar energy in these hours!
Of course, this phenomenon has a certain chance: First, the perfect cooperation of the weather, that is, the strong wind power in northern Germany (wind power concentration) and the bright sunshine in southern Germany (solar energy concentration) appear at the same time; Second, the day is a Sunday, Germany’s The overall electricity consumption is reduced compared to the working day. For the entire energy market, the chain reaction triggered by this accidental event almost overturned the entire market structure. That is, the price of electricity fell from the normal 3 Euro cents/kWh to the lowest – 32 Euro cents/kWh, which means that In the past few hours, electricity can actually make money!
The reason for this incredible phenomenon is that in Germany, although the energy transaction has been fully market-oriented, because the German Energy Law guarantees that renewable energy must be accessed in full, the greater the power generated by new energy sources, the more traditional it will be for other traditions. The smaller the share of energy. The particularity of electricity as a commodity is that its production and consumption must be carried out immediately, and the cost of storage is enormous. However, due to the demand for equipment operation, traditional energy sources have a minimum limit. Therefore, when the share of power generated by traditional energy sources is pushed by new energy sources below their minimum power generation, they must sell surplus power through subsidies. Going out, so as not to threaten the stability of the power grid, this creates the "negative price" phenomenon.
Changes in the energy industry require the support of information technology
From the above example of negative electricity prices in the German electricity market, it can be seen that, although from the whole year, new energy production accounts for only one third of the total electricity generation, due to the instability of new energy generation, at some points in time, The power generation of new energy will probably far exceed the average level, which will bring a huge impact on the grid and electricity market. If this problem cannot be solved, the further development of new energy will be greatly limited, and this is the pain point where information technology can play a big role.
The first is to solve the problem of uncontrollable power generation caused by the dispersal nature of new energy sources. Just as the taxi software taxis will organize the taxi drivers who blindly “sweep the streets†on the road, the use of information technology can also coordinate the decentralized new energy generation units to form a large virtual electric field. Many start-up companies have emerged in this field. The representative company is Germany's Next Kraftwerke, which currently has access to more than 4,000 new energy power generation units. The total power generation capacity has reached 2.7 GW, equivalent to a large-scale thermal power station. The power generation capacity. Its mode of operation is to install a communication and control component called “NextBox†in each power generation unit. Next Box is connected to the central server through a dedicated encrypted GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) channel. The real-time data of the power generation unit is transmitted to the central server and, on the other hand, the server's control commands are received, so that the grid and the electricity market can be responded in real time. Its business model is: On the one hand, small power generating units can be packaged into large-scale power plants, which can directly enter the electricity market for trading and obtain higher electricity prices; on the other hand, they can use their own rapid response capabilities to provide peaking services for the power grid. To gain further benefits.
The second problem is to solve the problem of unstable new energy power generation. Basically, it can be divided into three technical directions. The first direction is the use of information technology to forecast the amount of new energy generated, so that the power market mechanism in advance to respond to the future generation of new energy, to avoid large fluctuations in the power grid. The time difference between the transaction and actual power delivery in the European electricity market can be divided into the Future market, the Day-ahead market, the Intra-day market, and the Balancing market. The long-term market can trade electricity for the next few months or even years. The market was trading on the day before the actual power delivery. The day market was traded several hours in advance on the day, and the market was balanced to maintain the stability of the power grid. The transaction is done in minutes.
In response to the requirements of the European electricity market, the French start-up company Steadysun provided a three-level system for predicting solar power generation based on different forecast periods and accuracy: SteadyMet, SteadySat, and SteadyEye. The first-level system, SteadyMet, is based on historical operational data of weather models and solar power generation units, and comprehensively uses intelligent learning algorithms to provide solar power generation forecasts for the next few days, which can be used mainly in recent market transactions. The second-tier system SteadySat added the real-time satellite image information updated one to four times per hour. This can accurately predict the extent of solar power units covered by clouds and can provide solar power generation for up to 6 hours. The more accurate forecasts can be used mainly for daytime market transactions, and the prediction errors of the first-level systems can be corrected in time to reduce losses. The third-level system SteadyEye can provide accurate prediction of power generation in the next 15 minutes. It adds a camera to observe the movement of clouds in the vicinity of the solar power generation unit to capture the motion trajectory of the clouds, and then through the physical modeling of the movement of the clouds. The realization of very accurate prediction of cloud cover is mainly used for stable control of real-time power grids.
In terms of prediction of wind power generation capacity, the start-up company Enercast, which is a German start-up company, has developed a power generation forecasting service based on cloud-based intelligent algorithms. The prediction algorithm can be divided into two parts. The first part is the prediction of meteorological parameters. Due to the large number of meteorological parameters affecting wind turbine power generation, such as wind speed, wind direction, air density, humidity, and atmospheric pressure, in order to integrate meteorological models and meteorological information, Enercast launched the ensemble engine (integrated engine), which will be various The weather information is integrated with the model and based on the historical observation data of specific wind farms, their weights are set through the self-learning algorithm so as to obtain the optimal forecasting effect. The second part is the prediction of power generation based on meteorological parameters. For wind power generation, not only are numerous meteorological parameters, but even the surrounding terrain and other nearby wind turbines will have different degrees of impact on power generation. Therefore, it is difficult to accurately predict using traditional physical modeling prediction methods. Enercast Corp. has launched an artificial neural network-based forecasting algorithm for wind power generation. It first uses historical data (including meteorological parameters and power generation of specific wind turbines) to train artificial neural networks. Then it is based on the first part of the artificial neural network. The prediction of meteorological parameters yields prediction of power generation, and continuously feedbacks the measured data back to the neural network for iterative training in the course of operation, thereby continuously improving the prediction accuracy and continuously tracking the changes in the operating state of the wind generator itself.
For the above-mentioned virtual power plant operators like NextKraftwerke, since the power trading needs to be advanced, the forecasting service of new energy power generation is indispensable. Even for traditional energy power generation companies, forecasting services for new energy generation is becoming more and more important - it can not only avoid the occurrence of negative electricity prices mentioned earlier, but also predicts that if the electricity prices in the coming days are due to new energy power A large number of influxes have fallen below the cost, so conventional energy power generation companies can appropriately reduce the amount of power generated in advance to avoid losses.
The second technical direction is to adapt to the uncertainty of new energy sources through the active adjustment of the power end. In industrial power, there are many industrial processes that can flexibly adjust the use of electricity within a certain range without affecting the quality of the final product. In tapping this potential, Belgium's startup REstore has acquired hundreds of customers in many fields such as metallurgy, papermaking, and chemical engineering. REstore's business model begins with an analysis of each customer's power consumption characteristics, tailoring the power conditioning scheme accordingly, such as at which time periods, which proportion of electricity can be reduced. When these industrial enterprises are in short supply at the power generation end of the grid (such as when new energy is generated at a low level), the corresponding power load will be lowered under the command of the REstore information system. When the grid power supply is over-supplied, the electricity load is sufficient. Throughout the entire process, REstore does not charge any fees. It only draws a certain percentage of commissions from the additional revenue received by customers through participation in grid stability control [that is, the Balancing market transactions mentioned earlier]. For the power grid, the more power companies that actively participate in the stability control of the power grid, the less backup power generation capacity that needs to be prepared, and the corresponding overall power generation cost. It can be said that REstore has created a win-win situation.
The third technical direction is to use energy storage equipment to store electricity when the amount of new energy generated is large, and output electricity when the amount of electricity generated is small. This is the most effective way to compensate for the instability of new energy sources. With the rising share of new energy generation, large-scale energy storage will be indispensable.
On February 15, 2017, the blackout occurred in Australia's South Australia region. This was partly due to the lower-than-expected power generation from new energy sources and the lack of sufficient reserve capacity for power generation in the power grid. This was already happening in South Australia within a few months. The third major blackout occurred. In response to this challenge, Tesla founder Elon Musk publicly announced on social media Twitter that he had the ability to install 100 megawatts (Mwh) of battery energy storage equipment within 100 days. As a result, the stability of the power grid in South Australia is completely resolved, and it promises that if it cannot be completed within 100 days, all battery energy storage equipment will be provided free of charge. This sounding confident statement provoked a positive response from the Australian government and eventually led to the meeting between Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Musk. Musk was emboldened by Tesla's battery energy storage project completed in California in January 2017. It used 3 months to build an electrical energy storage device that could supply 15,000 households with several hours of electrical energy. California is full of sunshine and there is plenty of photovoltaic power during the day, often exceeding demand. However, at night, traditional gas-fired power generation is still needed to supplement the power supply. The gas leakage accident in California in 2015, the ever-increasing environmental protection requirements, and the plans to shut down the nuclear power plant all prompted the government to seek another solution. The battery storage can meet this demand well. Solar power stored during the day is stored for night use.
In addition to the large-scale centralized use of the scene, battery energy storage technology has now emerged as the core of home battery energy storage, and integrated the business model of home photovoltaic power generation and home smart energy management. Due to the decentralization of new energy generation, distributed home energy storage is a very promising solution in the future. Tesla is still bringing this model to public view, and it launched the Powerwall Home Battery in 2015. However, the current real leader in this field is German start-up company Sonnen, which accounts for nearly a quarter of the global home energy storage market, and in 2016 it successfully secured a new round of financing involving China Vision Energy. Sonnen begins by addressing the need for energy storage in home roof photovoltaic applications: Since the peak of photovoltaic generation is during the day and the peak of household electricity consumption is at night, there is a mismatch between peak generation and power usage, even if The sale of electricity to the grid, which is powered by the grid at night, still has to pay for the difference between the selling price and the buying price caused by the cost of the grid. With home energy storage, daylight photovoltaic power can be stored for use at night, which can significantly reduce household electricity bills.
On this basis, Sonnen has further integrated a home smart energy management system on its energy storage system. At present, it can connect with up to three home electric systems (such as washing machines, dryers, etc.), and there are surplus photovoltaics. In the case of electricity, these devices are first started to work, thereby reducing the need for energy storage batteries to a certain extent.
On the other hand, Sonnen's energy storage system can also use surplus storage capacity to provide stable control services for the grid and thus gain further benefits. For families without photovoltaic power generation equipment, Sonnen provides the business model of the "Sonnen community". By installing Sonnen's energy storage system, users can obtain up to 10 years of free electricity for 2 000 degrees per year. After this amount is exceeded, the user can also enjoy preferential electricity prices, so that the saved electricity far exceeds the cost of purchasing energy storage systems. On the one hand, this allows users to have more storage capacity. On the other hand, the electricity demand of these users has led to a new realization channel for excess power from photovoltaic power units connected to Sonnen's energy storage systems. The intermediate link, whether it is the power generation end or the power end, can obtain better electricity prices. At present, Sonnen Company is further promoting this model to the field of wind energy and biomass energy.
For the power grid, Sonnen's energy storage system on the one hand reduces the peak pressure brought by home photovoltaic power generation and household electricity misalignment, and on the other hand, it can “bundle†surplus storage capacity into a large storage tank. Can effectively compensate for the instability of new energy generation. In the future, this business model can also be extended to the electric vehicle industry, which is currently in full swing.
In this new dimension of energy storage applications, electric vehicles have a subversive advantage over traditional fuel vehicles. For a family car, it is inactive for most of the day. During these times, the electric vehicle battery that is connected to the grid may be used as the energy storage component of the power grid to participate in grid control, and the gains obtained can greatly dilute the battery cost of the electric vehicle.
In order to fully exploit the energy storage function of electric vehicles, it is necessary to first upgrade the charging system of electric vehicles. At present, most electric vehicles only have a one-way charging function, so they can only provide one-way energy storage capability. That is, they can control electric vehicles through smart charging software and charge when the grid load is small (such as at night). The future direction of development in this area is to further improve the charging and battery systems of electric vehicles, so that the power can achieve two-way flow, so as to better play its role as a grid energy storage component. Mitsubishi Motors Japan has taken the lead in introducing electric vehicles with charge and discharge functions. German BMW AG is also actively testing related technologies and products.
Second, we also need to consider the issue of coordinated control of decentralized electric vehicles. The aforementioned information technology-based solutions from Next Kraftwerke and Sonnen can be easily expanded into this area. In the future, as long as the user enters a travel plan, the intelligent management system of the electric vehicle can automatically generate an optimal charge and discharge procedure. Under the premise of guaranteeing the electric power required by the electric vehicle, the remaining storage capacity is connected to the “virtual power plantâ€. In order to get the maximum benefit for the user.
On the other hand, the lifespan of an EV battery as an energy storage component is far greater than the lifespan of an EV battery. Since the energy storage capacity of the grid requires far less battery performance than that of an EV, the battery capacity of the EV is used. When the attenuation to a certain extent, can not meet the requirements of electric vehicle cruising mileage, but can continue to grid energy storage services. At present, the German automotive industry leader BMW and Bosch are cooperating to build a new type of energy storage project in Hamburg, Germany. It is named “Second Life of Electric Vehicle Batteriesâ€. This project retires from BMW brand electric vehicles. Battery-based, redesigned and combined into a 26-meter-long, 6-meter-wide energy storage battery, in the future it will provide grid regulation services for the growing share of wind power generation in northern Germany. This also means that the overall cost of electric vehicles can be further reduced by reusing the batteries of decommissioned electric vehicles.
Battery energy storage technology has many advantages, but due to its high cost and energy attenuation rate, it is mainly applicable to short-term power peak application scenarios, and it needs to cooperate with other energy storage technologies. At present, all countries in the world are rushing to study various energy storage technologies that target different geographical and environmental conditions.
The first is a large-scale energy storage power plant represented by pumped storage. It is the oldest energy storage technology and has the advantage of being able to store electricity on a large scale for a long time. The disadvantage is that it requires a high level of environmental resources. In order to adapt to the rapidly growing demand for energy storage, the German government is trying every means to increase its pumped-storage capacity. One of the most innovative solutions is the re-use of abandoned coal mines in old industrial areas. Because the mine often has hundreds of meters deep and large underground space, it can be transformed to pump water from the bottom of the mine to the ground when the power is surplus, and return water to the bottom of the mine and generate electricity when the power is insufficient.
Under the background of the vigorous development of offshore wind energy, the German Fraunhofer Institute (Fraunhofe InsTItute for Produciton Technology) is developing deep-water energy storage technology. Its basic principle is to submerge a large-scale energy storage device into a depth of about 200 meters. In the seabed, water is extracted from the energy storage device by utilizing the electric energy generated by offshore wind power generation. When it is necessary to output electric energy, the water is pushed back into the energy storage device and is generated by the huge pressure of the seabed. At present, researchers have completed tests on model prototypes (volume reduction ratio of 1:10). Because offshore wind energy will provide Europe with a considerable share of energy supply, deep-water energy storage devices will have a good application prospect.
In the application scenario of onshore wind energy, the stored energy storage can also be deeply integrated with wind energy. Germany is building a new onshore wind farm, which will directly design the foundation part of the wind turbine as a tens of meters high reservoir, and the main structure of the wind turbine will be built on this reservoir. Compared with the basic fan base, this is equivalent to raising the fan by tens of meters. Under normal circumstances, because the wind speed is proportional to the height, this will greatly increase the amount of power generated by the wind turbine, and this additional revenue will offset the cost of building the reservoir in the future. The reservoirs of multiple wind turbines can also be connected to each other to form a water storage energy storage system that is closely integrated with the wind farm, so as to effectively balance the uncertainty of wind power generation.
Other large-scale energy storage solutions include compressed air, electrolyzed water, and hydrogen gas. Since there is no single type of energy storage technology that can be used as a "one-on-one," the future energy storage system must also be composed of a large number of geographically dispersed energy storage units with different internal mechanisms. There is a big difference from the corresponding cost, which requires a very complete information system to coordinate and control the various energy storage units so as to maximize their effectiveness.
The reconstruction of the energy system will bring
New business model based on information technology
As the share of new energy continues to increase, the energy system will gradually be reconstructed in the future. The future energy system will consist mainly of decentralized power generation units, decentralized power consumers, and dispersed energy storage units. The same node may also have multiple roles. For example, a home equipped with home photovoltaic power generation equipment and battery energy storage equipment (or electric cars) has all the character functions of generating electricity, electricity, and energy storage. This is very similar to the dual role of the Internet in transforming the general public from a single recipient of information into an initiator and receiver. In the future, such new energy nodes will provide very fertile ground for the wide application of information technology and the emergence of a large number of new business models.
For example, the emerging blockchain technology is likely to change the traditional power trading model in the future. Future grid transactions will first change from one-way to two-way, such as the previously mentioned homes equipped with home photovoltaic power generation equipment or other energy storage devices. They are both consumers of energy, producers of energy, and providers of grid services. Secondly, the number of power grid trading entities will increase unprecedentedly. Every family and even every electric vehicle connected to the grid will be a trading entity. The size of these trading entities are small, scattered, and even mobile. On the other hand, as mentioned earlier, the power grid needs to maintain dynamic balance at every moment. The value of the same power or energy storage service of the same capacity is different at different times and places, so if traditional The transaction method will have a large transaction cost, which is unsustainable by a large number of small-scale trading entities. The blockchain, as a decentralized trading tool, will hopefully provide basic trading services for the energy Internet in the future.
In this direction, the US startup TransAcTIveGrid (interactive grid) launched a blockchain technology-based personal power trading platform in 2016 that allows users to easily sell their excess rooftop PV power to their neighbors. No need to sign terms with each buyer cumbersome contract. Slock.it, an internet of things platform company jointly founded by German energy giant Innogy Co., Ltd., launched Blockchain-based electric vehicle charging service “Blockchargeâ€. Users do not have to sign any power contract with the power company, just download a mobile phone application and complete User verification can be carried out on Innogy's European charging piles. The electricity price is determined in real time by the background program based on the current situation of the grid and the local grid. Due to the use of blockchain technology, the entire charging and electricity price optimization process is fully traceable and queryable, thus greatly reducing trust costs. This model can be very easily extended to charging posts belonging to different power companies in different countries, and even to private motorized piles. In Germany, the number of private charging devices is 10 times that of public charging stations. The upgraded version of Blockcharge also includes these resources in the service area. As long as a plug with an information collection chip is installed on a private charging device, it can be easily accessed. Into the service network of Blockcharge, this model will further promote the rapid spread of electric vehicles.
Energy information security is indispensable
While introducing various information technologies into the energy sector, the issue of information security has also become a major issue in the energy industry. Since energy is a daily necessity, its safety requirements are correspondingly the highest. For a long time in the past, everyone's discussion of energy information security only stayed at the theoretical stage until December 23, 2015. At that time, Ukrainian electricity information systems were attacked maliciously. Hackers used software loopholes to invade power system control programs and cut off the electricity supply in the homes of nearly 200,000 households. They lasted for several hours. This is a case of Ukrainian residents who are suffering during the harsh winter. It is no different from a disaster. Such vicious attacks again took place in 2016, and the target of attack remained Ukrainian. Hackers once again successfully invaded the grid transmission control system. However, the impact of this attack was smaller than in 2015.
After a series of major accidents, the security of energy information systems has received very extensive attention. The design of traditional power systems fully considers the impact of various random natural disasters (such as typhoons), but lacks sufficient resistance to systematic malicious attacks. In response to a possible crisis, the North American Electricity Stability Organization (NERC) has developed corresponding industry regulations, put forward specific requirements for the protection of power information systems, and organized simulated attacks on power systems to verify safety levels. However, at present, these protection measures only consider large-scale backbone transmission networks and equipment, and are not suitable for connecting small-scale distribution networks and equipment for thousands of households. In 2015, the attacks against Ukraine happened precisely in small scales closely related to everyone’s lives. Distribution network area. In the future, all kinds of new energy power generation equipment will lead to a more dispersed grid layout and make it more difficult to manage power information security. However, for information security technology, this also means a broad market space. In the future, each household may need to install an energy system software firewall, just like a current home computer firewall.
Conclusion
The above-mentioned information technology solutions and business models are just the tip of the iceberg of energy transformation in the future. The pioneer of new energy development in Germany is carrying out its energy transformation plan in full swing, hoping that current new energy will account for 30% of total energy production. The share is further increased to 50% in 2030 and 80% in 2050. China’s “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†also sets the goal to increase the installed capacity of new energy sources to 35% by 2020. The information technology will play a fundamental role in the future energy system. The predictable and controllable distributed new energy will be connected in series with the immediate response industrial and domestic electricity and energy storage units. It is actually the current electricity. A layer of information network was added to the network. The intelligent interaction between these two networks constitutes the energy internet, which will make it possible to build a clean energy system with new energy as the main body in the future.
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